Market Carnage: How Analysts Are Scrambling to Rebuild Models Amid Tariff Whiplash

The Market is Bleeding… And It’s Not Over Yet

The past few days have been some of the most brutal in recent market history. Funds are degrossing at an unprecedented rate, entire investment teams are getting wiped out, and traders are scrambling to figure out which companies have the most exposure to the ongoing tariff fallout. Podshops are experiencing record drawdowns, with last Friday being a near 4 standard deviation move across most neutral strategies. Needless to say, risk limits are being triggered at many equity shops. This is not just a bad week—this is an event that is fundamentally reshaping how institutional investors approach modeling and risk assessment.

Funds Getting Caught Offside: A Failure in Geographical Modeling

What’s causing the panic? According to some industry insiders, the problem isn’t just the tariff news itself—it’s the fact that almost no one on Wall Street is prepared to adjust their models to tariffs. Analysts are taught from a young age to think about incrementals and decrementals. For each dollar of revenue added, how does it flow down to net income? Models are set up in a way that even a change in one segment’s revenue flow neatly into free cash flow, a core part of what allows for emotionless, high velocity decision making. 

However, few models take into account geographical exposure. The majority of public companies prepare geographical revenue by major countries or regions, and on an annual basis (in the 10-K) discuss asset breakdown by geography. Sharpened analysis will often get close to both revenue, and cost mix by country. Most people know about this information, but given the relative low impact, is often not used as a model driver. When news of tariffs hit, analysts across the street are scrambling to find a bottom for their names. Trying to balance your book while volatility spikes, factors unwind and model your coverage to geographical breakdown across revenue and cost line items is simply not possible in a short amount of time.

This is exactly why some of the biggest players in the industry are getting completely caught offside. Firms that made concentrated bets on names highly sensitive to tariffs—without properly analyzing their geographic revenue exposure—are now in a state of forced liquidation. According to sources, this has led to some of the most aggressive degrossing we’ve seen in years.

From a recent buyside chat group:

“Worst drawdown in 10y of doing this. TMT pods getting killed, especially those with momentum. If you made money coming into March, you gave it all back. Heard a few quant pods shut, few of pods still degrossing hoping to not hit their limit. Need to find the fundamental bottom fast, a lot of money to be made on the way up.”

The Daloopa Edge: Finding the Right Names Before the Next Wave of Liquidations

Here’s the reality—most investors were not prepared for this. While tariffs and trade war concerns have been discussed for years, few had fully modeled out how individual companies would be affected at a granular, country-by-country level.

This is where Daloopa provides an edge.

Our Geographical Revenue Breakdown in our data sheets allows analysts to pinpoint which companies have the highest exposure to tariff-impacted regions. With funds looking for a way to reposition and avoid getting hit in the next round of forced selling, our data gives them the ability to rebuild models—fast.

For analysts covering TMT, autos, and other exposed sectors, this is mission-critical. Without a detailed view of where a company makes its money and where it incurs costs, any investment decision in this environment is a coin flip.

What’s Next? The Market is Still Unwinding

The liquidations aren’t over. There are still multiple days of degrossing ahead as funds unwind risk. Analysts who move quickly—rebuilding models with proper geographical sensitivities—will be the ones who avoid getting wiped out.

For those looking to get ahead, Daloopa’s Geographical Data is the edge you need.

If you’re an analyst in TMT, autos, or any sector sensitive to tariffs, reach out today to see how our data can help you navigate this chaos.