Starbucks (SBUX) stock has gotten hammered after it reported a disastrous Q2. The company missed revenue by 6% as same-store sales declined 4% when the Street sought a modest 1% year-over-year growth. The stock is trading at multi-year lows with the consensus doubting improvement in the near term. A couple of recent initiatives around lower-priced food-drink combinations, along with their new energy drinks could provide an offset to previously declining foot traffic.
As a technology investor, I needed to gain a background in Starbucks and gather the information to build a basic model. So, I downloaded the Starbucks data sheet from Daloopa, which allowed me to see detailed KPIs from 2012 to 2024 last quarter. For 2024, the updated detailed guidance post-Q2 is in the sheet, so I can see what it was pre-Q2 and post-Q2. Post-Q2 comparable store sales are expected to decline in single digits versus previously growing 4-6%.
While SBUX increased its cost efficiency target from $3billion to $4 billion for FY23 through FY26, you need a return to growth to getinvestors excited. Goldman Sachs recently initiated coverage of the stock withan out-of-consensus buy. The analyst is “encouraged by recent frequency datapointing to improvements across traffic, app users and Net PurchaseIntent”. With the stock at multi-yearlows, trading at 15x EV to forward EBITDA, any sign that the energy drink andcombination initiatives are working would be a boon.
Watch the video to see how we gathered the latest Starbucks data for trend analysis:
